National market steady but regions diverge
New analysis from Cotality has revealed a significant shift in the balance of property supply and demand across New Zealand, with key locations experiencing a notable easing.
Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said that while the national market remains well-balanced, a deeper dive into population and dwelling data found that the supply of new homes in major cities like Wellington and Auckland had outpaced population growth, leading to a loosening of market conditions.
In Wellington, the population actually declined 1.0% between 2019 and 2024, while the dwelling stock increased 4.3%. This caused the city’s occupancy rate to fall from 2.97 people per home to 2.82. “While the recent property value downturn is partly an unwinding of previous affordability stress, this loosening of the supply and demand balance also played a role,” Mr Davidson said.
Auckland’s population grew 7.0% over the same period, but this was outpaced by a 10.3% rise in dwelling stock, which reduced the occupancy rate from 3.45 to 3.34. Mr Davidson said this easing aligned with the recent weakness in Auckland property values, though “it is also worth noting that the recent construction mix in Auckland has been dominated by townhouses, which are smaller and have a naturally lower occupancy rate.”
Some regions are tightening instead
By contrast, other main centres have experienced the opposite trend. In Hamilton, for example, the population rose 10.3% between 2019 and 2024, while dwelling stock increased 8.1%; in Tauranga, the population also grew faster (10.2%) than the housing supply (5.9%).
“Although these areas are not experiencing a property value boom, their markets have been more resilient than those in Auckland and Wellington, with less improvement in housing affordability,” Mr Davidson said.
A mixed picture across the country
Nationally, from 2019 to 2024, the population grew by 6.4% while housing stock rose by 7.5%, reducing the occupancy rate from 2.99 to 2.96. “This figure suggests that the overall market is well-balanced, with the long-run average of 2.97 people per house sitting close to the current rate,” Mr Davidson said.
In Waimakariri, Selwyn and Waikato District, housing construction has largely kept pace with population growth.
Queenstown-Lakes remains an exception, with high property values and intense affordability pressures despite the city's dwelling stock growing slightly faster than its population. “This highlights the unique market dynamics of Queenstown, where accumulated wealth helps to insulate property values even with strong supply growth,” Mr Davidson said.
If you know sellers or buyers who want to understand how local market conditions could affect their finance options – such as their borrowing capacity or the timing of a purchase – I’d be grateful if you could refer them to me.